Monday 11 January 2016

Dredging Corporation of India Limited- massive growth ahead



CMP-   Rs.405
M.cap-    1,139 cr


  

Dredging is the process of excavating or removing soil or rock from below water using dredgers. The operation of dredging involves two main stages
(i)                the material to be removed has to be disturbed and loosened and then lifted to the water surface and
(ii)              Every cubic meter of material dredged should be relocated or disposed of to a suitable disposal site as identified. The main objective of dredging is the creation of deeper and/or wider waterways to improve navigation of ships.

Dredging market is a composition of various types of activities such as

Capital dredging projects are primarily port creation and expansion projects, which also involve the deepening and/or widening of channels to allow access by larger and deeper draught ships and also the provision of land fill for building additional port facilities, thereby enhancing port capability.

Maintenance dredging consists of the restoration of designed depths of waterways and harbors by removing silt, sand and other accumulated sediments. Due to natural sedimentation, active channels generally require periodic maintenance dredging, thus creating a continuous source of dredging work that typically must be carried out if the navigability of the channels is to be maintained.

Inland dredging consists of dredging in rivers, canals, lakes and other inland bodies of water. It is used to create or maintain depths in inland waterways for inland transportation, for flood control, to increase capacity of silted ponds and also to remove polluted sediments

Reclamation dredging involves capital dredging and is the raising of land levels and creation of land. Beach nourishment dredging generally involves moving sand from the seabed to shoreline locations when erosion has progressed to a stage that threatens substantial shoreline assets or affects tourism

The scope for dredging in India
The scope for dredging in India is potentially vast, looking at the prospects of development and maintenance of existing major ports, building new ports, offshore resources exploration, demand from navy and more interestingly the projects envisaged for national waterways. The capital dredging demand during 2012-2017 is about 639 million m3 and that of maintenance dredging during the same period is about 521 million m3. This requires the employment of substantial number of dredgers of varying capacities. The minor sector dredging demand of about 100 million m3, during the said period, offers additional opportunity for dredging. The modal shift of cargo to inland and coastal waterways offers bright prospects for a sustainable economic prosperity.


Demand Drivers

Indian Dredging Market

The increased focus on infrastructure and impetus by the government to make India a global trans-shipment hub, coupled with some of the large dredging projects already announced reflects the high potential of the Indian dredging market.

Market Size ~Rs. 20,000 Cr.  by 2020

Demand Drivers
(i)                Deeper Draft at Ports | Atleast 14 mtrs .
(ii)             Increase in EXIM Trade and throughput Capacity at Ports
(iii)           Land Reclamation
(iv)           Emerging Trends | Ultra Mega Size Vessels
(v)             Consistent maintenance and capital dredging at existing ports
(vi)           Inland Transport & water linking projects
(vii)        Tourism Development| Beach nourishment



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Company Overview

·        Premier dredging company in India in terms of hopper capacity & quantity dredged

·        Owns and operates 12 Trailer Suction Hopper Dredgers, 3 Cutter Suction Dredgers and 1 Back hoe Dredger

·        Conferred with “Mini Ratna Category I status” by the GOI in November 1999

·        Key customers for Fiscal 2015 include Kolkata Port (Haldia), Kandla Port, Ennore Port, Cochin Port, Visakhapatnam Port.

·        Estimated market share of 75.6% in maintenance dredging and 64.9% in capital dredging during Fiscal 2015

·        A premier and the only PSU dredging company in India.
Preferred dredging company for Major Ports and Indian Navy.
Has been in dredging business since 1976 catering to the dredging requirements of the Major Ports & Indian Navy.
·        Operates a diverse dredging fleet which is the largest in India in terms of capacity. The size, versatility and technical capabilities of DCI’s fleet improves its competitiveness as it generally permits it to select the appropriate equipment for a particular maintenance dredging job.
·        To maintain the value and effectiveness of fleet, DCI emphasizes on preventive maintenance so as to reduce the downtime, increase profitability, enhance the vessel life
·        Leader in maintenance dredging in India through combination of usage of advanced equipment and experience. Sized as the largest dredging company in India and extensive experience significantly enhances the ability to bid profitably bid and complete the contracts awarded.
·        The senior management team as well as the floating personnel who manage the dredgers have vast experience in the dredging and maritime industries which provides a significant edge over the competitors.



Indian Government is planning  Inland waterways projects, which will make it possible for us to fully reap the benefits of large rivers like Ganga. India has just 14500 KM of inland waterways even these are not used for transportation of goods which can be very cheap as compared to road and rail. And our Non-religious Neighbor China has waterways of 100000 km and it transports around 47% of its cargo via water, we are at 3-4%. Even Europe is at 44%, Bangladesh at 35% !!

Number of inland vessels in india are just 1000, in china there are 200000 and 11000 of Europe.
But now india is waking up and just recently they planned a waterway from Varanasi to Haldia of 1620 KM. Dredging is constantly required to keep these waterways navigable.

So we will see huge demand for dredging. DCI is the biggest indian Dredging service provider but garners just around 700 cr of turnover. But it has acquired 3-4 new vessels in last 2-3 years and plans are for better planning of its finance
Other Competitors in dredging industry

Indian

·       Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd.


·       Dharti Dredging and Infrastructure Ltd., Hyderabad

·       Mercator Limited, Mumbai
·       Chellaram Shipping Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai

Indian arms of foreign companies


·       Boskalis Dredging India Pvt. Ltd.

·       International Seaports Dredging Pvt. Ltd., Chennai

·          
·       Jan De Nul Dredging India Pvt. Ltd.

·       Van Oord India Pvt Ltd




The government encouragement for “Make in India" has brought in a lot of economic interest in all industries.
Falling fuel prices will reduce the expenses significantly in the future.

Diversification Plan of DCI


Coastal Shipping
The forecasted economic growth for India is expected to transcend to the shipping industry which in turn is expected to post high growth. This would result in increase in the number of dredging (shipping) vessels servicing the Indian shores, which would require operational management. However due to DCI’s lack of existing capability coupled with no related synergies, DCI can at best only expect to be a small player in the Coastal Shipping Segment.

Dredge Repair Yard
The past couple of years has seen a large number of international players enter the Indian dredging market. This coupled with the rise of few domestic players has increased the total dredging fleet within the Indian market.
Presently India and its neighboring countries do not possess a dredge repair yard of international repute to service and maintain these technically complex vessels. Thus this option can be considered by DCI in partnership with a shipyard to service captive requirements and for other customers in the region

Soil Trading
This area is very nascent and not particularly well developed in India currently, although international majors have diversified into this area. The growth potential and entry barriers would largely depend on the market dynamics in future

Civil Construction
A growing trend evidenced in large port contracts is that these are being awarded on a turnkey basis to a consortium displaying both civil and dredging capabilities. To be able to cash in on this opportunity DCI needs to enter into a consortium to offer turnkey solutions to client as developing this skill set in-house may be difficult and capital intensive.

Training
At present there is no Institute offering formal education and training in the dredging field in India. DCI can enter into a tie up with some of the management institutes in India to impart formal education in this space and can also leverage this course to carry out research and development to further its technological know-how



Final word- Dredging Corporation of India Limited is all set to become a major player in its field and has huge growth potential for creating wealth for its investors.



Disclaimer: I have vested interest in this company and hence my views are biased.

Registration Status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. As per the clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”.



Thursday 7 January 2016

Satin Creditcare Network Ltd- a niche microfinance company with massive growth potential

          The Largest micro finance player in North India

 CMP- Rs 367.7

Satin Creditcare Network Limited (SCNL) was formed in 1990 as a Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) with the simple concept of providing individual loans to urban shopkeepers for tiny businesses by Mr. Harvinder Pal Singh. Since then the company has expanded and evolved into one of the leading microfinance institutions in India with its current geography in North as well as Central India.
Satin Creditcare Network (SCNL) is the sixth largest MFI in the country with an AUM of ~Rs 21bn and a primary focus on North India where it has a presence across 11 states. It also provides business correspondent services to Yes Bank and Ratnakar Bank through a group company for a 10% royalty fee, besides originating LAP for Reliance Capital. Management sees immense potential for growth in the underserved states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, and is targeting 60-70% AUM CAGR along with steady 18-20% ROEs over FY15-FY17.
SCNL provides loans to both urban poor and rural poor to meet their productive requirements in starting new business or for growing an existing business. The company’s microfinance operation is based on both Joint Liability Group(JLG) model as well Self Help Group model (SHG).

At present, SCNL has its strong presence and serves its clients throughout Bihar, Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, Jammu , Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand . SCNL is  listed on NSE and recently on BSE.



It is backed by very strong financial institutions. Partners - http://www.satincreditcare.com/our-partner.php



Co promoters HP Singh is a CA & his brother Satvinder Singh is a MBA from IMT.They are coming from a service class background & enjoy good reputation in NCR where the co is headquartered. As such HP Singh is a first gen entrepreneur with growth mindset.The type of growth they have shown is superb over last 4 years with EPS increasing from 0.78 in fy 2011 to 12 in fy 2015.This year EPS may touch 20 as last qtrly EPS was 4.5 & there is good infusion of funds by PE players.
Co had come with IPO in 1996 & got listed at DSE.It transformed into MFI in 2008 & sinc ethen has been on strong growth path.It got relisted at NSE 4 months ago and on BSE recently.
Almost 50% equity is with quality PE players like Currently, it has 5 foreign investors - ShoreCap, Danish Microfinance Partners K/S, Microvest, Norweign Microfinance Initiative Fund and SBI FMO Emerging Asia Financial Sector Fund Pte Ltd - who jointly hold 48.98 per cent stake in the company.This is a big comforting factors as these  are specialized MFI investors who would have invested only after doing their home work. With 35% stake with promoters issue is of liquidity.

Business profile
SCNL was formed in 1990 to give individual loans to urban shopkeepers for tiny businesses. It forayed into microfinance in 2008 and scaled up quickly to emerge as the largest player in Northern India. The company has a presence in 11 states and is a market leader in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. SCNL currently has ~2,500 employees, 267 branches and 1.2mn clients. AUM has grown rapidly over FY11-15, which has aided +180% CAGR in net profit, even as lower delinquencies have helped keep GNPAs at 0.02%. Notably, SCNL enjoys the confidence of PE investors who have infused money at regular intervals.

Targeting 65-70% CAGR in AUM over next two years
SCNL is the sixth largest MFI in India with an AUM of ~Rs 21bn as of Mar’15 and strong potential for growth given its presence in states where the per capita income level is below the national average. Management sees substantial business opportunities as the sector is highly underpenetrated and believes it can scale AUM up 60-70% over FY15-FY17 to ~Rs 56bn.


Strong profit profile: Spreads are likely to remain protected at 9-9.5%. Opex to average assets has come off from ~10% in FY12 to ~6% currently and management expects to maintain this in a range of 5.5-6.5% going forward. ROE has improved substantially from sub-5% in FY12/FY13 (Andhra Pradesh crisis) to ~19% in FY15 and management expects a range of 18-20% going forward.



Final word- strong buisiness profile of the company should give multi-fold returns in the long run. 


Disclaimer: I have vested interest in this company and hence my views are biased.

Registration Status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. As per the clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”.

Saturday 28 November 2015

Majesco updates..

Appreciated more than 30% from suggested level. Now Hdfc initiated buy call. Daljeet Singh of indianivesh is also superbullish. Stay invested. Buy on dips. I feel it is just the beginning. 

Saturday 14 November 2015

MAJESCO.....A DARK HORSE... CAN CHANGE THE INVESTORS FATE

CMP-RS.508


GRAB IT YOUNG

Company Background
Majesco Ltd (MJCO) is the spin-off business unit of Mastek Ltd which got listed in NSE & BSE on 19th Aug 2015. Majesco is a core software solution provider to the US Property & Casualty/General Insurance (“P&C”), and Life, Annuities & Pensions (“L&A”) insurance companies. MJCO provides services policy administration, claims management and billing and has a highly rated platform from leading US rating agencies like Gartner and Celent. The company recently got listed in NYSE after acquiring Cover-All technologies and Agile in the US. The combined entity has a revenue of US$ 106 mn in FY15. total 140 customers and employees ~1850 insurance professionals having a global foot print in US, Canada, UK, Malaysia, Thailand and India. The company Insurance business has growth strongly in the past three years with Insurance grew at a CAGR of ~22% and P&C clocked a CAGR of 36% in FY12-15. The company derives ~88% revenues from US market and 6% from UK. Insurance business contributes is 96% of total business
Immense opportunity in US Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance market 
The US P&C insurance is a big market with Insurance IT spend for external software and services in the range of US$ 44 bn (according to Novarica 2015 report). The total premium underwritten by top US P&C insurers was in the range of ~US$ 1,259 bn. Generally insurance companies spend ~3-4% of the premium on IT up-gradation which is ~US$44 bn. Out of this ~US$9 bn can migrate to third part vendors like Majesco and Guidewire, etc. The addressable market for Majesco is primarily related to billing, policy administration & claims, which is ~US$ 6-7 bn. At present only ~10-15% of the market is penetrated and Majesco remains one of the top 3 vendors in US P&C Insurance market, thus there lies immense opportunity. In insurance business ~83% is derived from US P&C Insurance (which is highly underpenetrated) and ~13% from Life and Annuity (L&A) insurance. There is huge growth opportunities in the US P&C Insurance market and we believe this segment will drive growth going forward
Management optimistic—likely to clock revenue CAGR of 23% for FY15-18E 
Management is optimistic about the growth prospects of the company has listed the goals for the next three years. They expect the company revenues to reach ~US$ 200-225 mn in FY18E which results in a revenue CAGR of 23% (taking the lower end) in FY15-18E. Further on the margins front the company expects EBIT margin to be in higher single digit (9-10%) from current loss at EBIT level.


Majesco Ltd Insurance Business will be comparable to US listed peers
Majesco is rated among the top 3 Insurance platform vendors in North American market and has 9 out of top 25 Insurance players as its clients. It is also a leader in P&C billing solutions and is comparable to Guidewire a US listed Major P&C Insurance player. Majesco has ~140 active clients as compared to ~183 for Guidewire. In terms of valuation Guidewire trades a EV/Sales of ~6.7x FY17E. Where as Majesco is trading 5 times lesser valuation than Guidewire

Majesco has been rated by Gartner and has been among the top 3 vendors in the US P&C market. Gartner has placed Majesco platform in the leaders quadrant and it is one of the few Indian product companies to be highly rated by reputed analysts in the US and UK

Huge Cross selling Opportunities, recent acquisitions to trigger growth 
The company acquired Agile Technologies which is a US based USD 9 mn revenue run-rate, 20 clients and 50 employees consulting services company focusing on the insurance vertical. The company also acquired the NYSE-listed Cover-All Technologies (Sales US $20mn, 30clients and 150 employees) which is focused on providing solutions to the property and casualty insurance sector. We believe that Majesco will be able to integrate into Cover-All comfortably as the size of Cover-All is one fourth of Majesco and have the same domain expertise and capabilities. There is huge growth opportunities in the US P&C Insurance market.The company is expected to get ~US$20mn from cross selling opportunities. 

 Most of the information is obtained from a research report.
Disclaimer: I have vested interest in this company and hence my views are biased.

Registration Status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. As per the clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”.